Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
